We would like to share with you the results of the new research on ” Global impact of the Covid-19 on TB “. The study was launched by the ” Stop Tuberculosis ” in cooperation with the Empire College, Avenir Health and the University of John Hopkins with the support of the International Development Agency United States (USAID).

The authors note that the model can be played in any other country and results can be used by countries to make informed decisions and financial requests.

A brief summary of the results of the new study shows

Although the tough response to the COVID-19 can only last for a few months, they will have a long-term impact on TB with a high-level impact on TB diagnosis and treatment.

  • On a global scale, a 3-month strong insulation and a long 10-month recovery of the aid system could lead to an additional 6.3 million cases of disease and 1.4 million dead from TB between 2020 and 2025 a year.
  • So, the level of disease and death from TB in 2021 will increase to the last seen in 2013 and 2016 years due to the pandemic-19.
  • Long-term results will depend much on short-term recovery.
  • Every month needed to return to normal anti-tuberculosis services will lead to further death between 2020 and 2025 India has 40 people in India; there are 1157 people in Ukraine, and 137 people in Ukraine.
  • In order to bring back the progress made in recent years through active effort and investment in the fight against TB, it is important to provide additional action and resources to reduce the number of unknown people with TB. Such measures include increased active community awareness, track of contact, awareness of the importance of recognition of TB-related symptoms, using digital technology and other tools. It will play an important role to provide access to the safe treatment of guaranteed quality for every patient with TB. Registration of cases guarantees the effective performance of these events. More information about modelling work is available here http://www.stoptb.org/assets/documents/covid/Modeling_Report_COVID_and_TB_FINAL_1_RU.pdf
  • We would like to share with you the results of a new modelling study “Global impact of Covid-19 on TB treatment and care”. The new study was commissioned by the Stop TB Partnership in collaboration with the Imperial College, Avenir Health and  Johns Hopkins University, and was supported by USAID – US Agency for International Development.
  • The authors note that the model can be replicated in any other country and that the findings can be used by countries for data-driven decisions and financial requests. Summary results from a new modelling study shows while stringent COVID-19 responses may only last months, they would have a lasting impact on TB in high-burden settings, through their effect mainly on TB diagnosis and treatment.

Globally, a 3-month lockdown and a protracted 10-month restoration could lead to an additional 6.3 million cases of TB between 2020 and 2025, and an additional 1.4 million TB deaths during this time.

As such, global TB incidence and deaths in 2021 would increase to levels last seen in between 2013 and 2016 respectively – implying a setback of at least 5 to 8 years in the fight against TB, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Long-term outcomes can be strongly influenced by the pace of short-term recovery.

Each month taken to return to normal TB services would incur, in India, an additional 40,685 deaths between 2020 and 2025; in Kenya, an additional 1,157 deaths; and in Ukraine, an additional 137 deaths over this period

To recover the gains made over the last years through increased efforts and investments in TB, it is important to have supplementary measures and resources to reduce the accumulated pool of undetected people with TB. Such measures may include ramped-up active case-finding, alongside intensive community engagement and contact tracing to maintain awareness of the importance of recognizing and responding to symptoms suggestive of TB, using digital technology and other tools. Securing access to an uninterrupted supply of quality-assured treatment and care for every single person with TB will be essential. Notifications will provide a helpful approach for monitoring the progress of such supplementary efforts.

Details about the modelling work are available http://www.stoptb.org/assets/documents/news/Modeling%20Report_1%20May%202020_FINAL.pdf